Cotton City change policy helps guide

In May, negative factors were reflected in a concentrated manner. The global economic situation was still not optimistic. Cotton demand did not improve. Quota release and rumors of deposits all exerted pressure on market psychology. In addition to the long and short game of funds, various factors were superimposed on the short term. The effect of negative factors was amplified, leading to a continuous and rapid decline in cotton prices at home and abroad, and the market outlook was pessimistic. In June, with the introduction of China's economic stimulus policies, global stock markets and commodity markets have generally risen, and the domestic electronic market has turned red.

The pessimistic buying and selling in the spot market has become stagnant. In May, the debt crisis in Europe is expected to deepen. JP Morgan’s huge loss of 2 billion U.S. dollars will shock the world; India’s cotton will be released for export, China’s domestic approval will issue import cotton quasi-quasi-tax quotas; and the US Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand The report shows that the world's ending stocks have soared. In the next fiscal year, China's imported cotton will reduce bad news such as millions of tons, which will aggravate investors' worries about all aspects of the market. Although there was good news that the central bank's RRR was cut by 0.5%, it was difficult to boost the market. In the international economic situation and the ICE cotton oversold, the domestic electronic market dropped sharply, the market sentiment was tight, cotton prices fell to the lowest level in the past two years, **, match, spot prices have fallen to 19,800 yuan / ton Below, the processing companies are more pessimistic about the market outlook. Spot sales are even more difficult. Textile companies either directly return the goods or notify the cotton merchants to postpone their shipments. They will focus their purchase orders on import quotas. Even if the cotton merchants cut their prices, textile companies will remain unconcerned. Individual textile companies need cotton, except that a small amount of high-grade Xinjiang cotton can be traded in small quantities. The real estate cotton is basically in a state of priceless market, and the cotton traders who still have real estate cotton still face losses. As of the beginning of June, the public inspection of the 3rd level of cotton in the Mainland has been reduced to 18600-18800 yuan/ton, and the price of real estate 4th grade cotton is 17500-17800 yuan/ton, and the 5th grade cotton is 16,000 yuan/ton. On June 8, CC Index 328 fell to around RMB 18,473/ton, which was RMB 878/ton lower than RMB 19,351/ton at the end of April, which was lower than 2011's RMB 1,800/ton for 19,800 yuan/ton.

In May, the transplanting of new cotton in various parts of the country was basically completed. The planting progress was normal, the seedling emergence was relatively smooth, and the emergence was better overall. During the month, most of the cotton regions in China had good conditions of light and temperature and suitable soil moisture, which was conducive to the growth of cotton seedlings; drought conditions occurred in some cotton fields in the Yellow River Basin, and the soil in the Jiangnan Cotton Region continued to be too wet, which was slightly detrimental to cotton growth.

In mid-May 2012, the 'China Cotton Industry Development Summit Forum' was held in Chengdu. At the meeting, relevant leaders of the National Development and Reform Commission talked about several market concerns: the next year, the country will continue to implement open storage to protect the interests of cotton farmers, and maintain the basic stability of the market, this point will not change; Second, the country will not suppress The market and related departments are full of confidence in the future. The position of relevant departments has restored market confidence.

The Canton Fair has shown negative growth Since textile companies favored imported cotton in May, affected by the decline in domestic and foreign cotton prices, and the downstream demand for textiles remains weak, the yarn market prices have generally declined. Taking the price trend of 32 knitted yarns for cotton as an example, the price fell from the high of 25,700 yuan/ton in early May to 24,900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.11%. At the 2012 China Cotton Industry Development Summit Forum, Zhu Bina, president of the China Cotton Textile Industry Association, said that according to the same survey conducted by the Cotton Textile Industry Association, from January to April this year, the national yarn production dropped by about 3%. If the situation does not change in the second half of the year, This year's yarn production will be less than 20 million tons.

The official closing of the 111th Canton Fair on May 5th. According to official statistics of the Canton Fair, the Canton Fair turnover was 36.03 billion U.S. dollars, which was 4.8% lower than the 110th session of the Canton Fair and 2.3% lower than the 109th session of the Canton Fair. This is because since the financial tsunami erupted, after the negative growth of the Spring Fair held in April 2009, the Canton Fair has shown negative growth. The proportion of short- and medium-term orders within 6 months reached 86.3%, and long-term orders accounted for only 13.7%. As of May 4th, the cumulative export volume of the textile and clothing exhibition hall was 2.29 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.3% from the previous month and a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year. This reflects the influence of the international financial crisis. Buyers place orders with caution. Mainland exporters are worried about raw material prices and exchange rate fluctuations and are not willing to accept long orders.

China Cotton Information Network April textile survey results show that cotton textile enterprises accounted for more than half of imported cotton, cotton industry inventory totaled 761,200 tons, a decrease of 12.6% compared with 879,900 tons in March. China Cotton Information Network survey data show that from 2011/2012 cotton year-to-date, the proportion of imported cotton used by cotton textile enterprises has increased steadily, from 26.95% in September 2011 to 50.03% in April 2012, and the cumulative use of imported cotton accounts. An increase of 85.6%.

International cotton prices have fallen sharply. There has been no clearance of cotton. Since the beginning of May, international cotton prices have been declining. The recent contract settlement price of May 31st was 71.55 cents/lb, down by nearly 18 cents/lb from the 89 cents/lb at the end of last month. Not only cotton, crude oil, copper and other leading commodities are also rapidly falling within a short period of one month. Gold with anti-inflation function has also fallen from high levels. The impact of the European debt crisis is the main factor causing the general decline in commodities. In addition to economic pressures, the cotton market has fundamental pressures. Although the current US cotton planting area may decline by 10% to 15%, Indian officials are also expected to decline by 10% to 12%, and China will decline by about 10%. However, the consumption situation is not optimistic and the overall market demand is weak, which puts pressure on prices.

** Prices fell, causing spot prices to fall. Although the decline in spot prices is not as deep as that of **, the default pressure caused by falling prices has become more apparent. It is understood that there are not many direct breaches in the market, but the delay in opening letters of credit has gradually spread. Most companies that currently have goods for sale have failed to make a successful hedge. Most of them have ever opted for hedging. Later, they made a profit and closed their positions. According to a survey conducted by China Cotton Information Network, as of now, the proportion of cotton that has been cleared at customs is relatively small, and Shandong has the largest inventory (mainly in Qingdao, including Gaomi, Yucheng, Weifang, etc.); the amount of unchecked cotton inventory is monthly. Increased by the end of April more than 500,000 tons. By the end of May, there was no customs clearance plus cumulative stocks of cotton that had been cleared at around 700,000 tons.

With the increase of the difference between cotton prices inside and outside, the quota price has risen again after falling in the previous period. In the month of June, some companies that have previously signed Australian Cotton will arrive in Hong Kong in succession, and will reach the peak of Hong Kong in July and August. The arrival of new cotton in Brazil will also increase gradually after August, plus the already signed US cotton and West Africa. In the contract for cotton in other places, if the current quota is extremely tight and the port inventory is already very large, if there are no more additional quotas in the later period, or if the quotas that have already been issued are currently used slowly, the cotton inventory that the port has not cleared may increase further.

Looking forward to the beginning of June, the weak data released by China and the United States aggravated the market's concerns about the economic downturn. Electronic discs at home and abroad continued to drop sharply, and the market was very bearish. Subsequently, the domestic central bank cut interest rates, led the global stock market and commodity markets generally higher, electronic disk there has been a process of overswing, but the fundamentals are weak, still cautious bullish.

Judging from the current situation, the euro zone PMI economic data continues to decline, the European debt crisis has shown signs of deterioration, the euro zone economic recession has become a reality, this will inevitably drag down the global fragile economy, and lead to shrinking global textile and apparel consumption. Coupled with the oversupply of global cotton, cotton prices do not have the basis for substantial increases. At the same time, international cotton prices are significantly lower than domestic cotton prices. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices remains high. Chinese textile and apparel are not competitive, and exports continue to shrink. Textile companies will continue to import large quantities of cotton, and domestic cotton is backed up by the enemy, despite the new year's 20,400 yuan. / Tons of reserve price support, but from June to July, cotton prices are still very upward pressure.

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