Septwolves change: from "wholesale" to "retail" transformation

Faced with changes in the market, the company adjusted its business strategy by first recuperating: The mid-year report shows that the total number of shops is 3,855, a decrease of 152 from the end of 12; meanwhile, it continuously increased inventory and accounts receivable, and the impairment provision reached in the third quarter 13 years ago 127 million yuan in the 12-year annual impairment provision of 124 million yuan on the basis of increased again; according to our communication with the terminal, many agents have also appeared net shop, from the second half of the 12th continuously through the appropriate control of orders, Increase sales efforts to control the inventory, the current inventory is in the process of decline; company is committed to promoting the "wholesale" to "retail" transformation: the domestic market from 2011 changes, the past effective store and marketing model of development ended, The era of refined management comes, the company profound meaning of the importance of transitional leather. Company proposed to change the system of professional managers, the key in the division of responsibilities and rights need to reform, so that professional managers team give full play to their own characteristics and capabilities; rationalize the relationship between internal departments and improve operational efficiency; tolerate agents within a reasonable range Control the scale, turn a loss of stores; actively and steadily promote online sales, is still the main sales inventory. Because the company means that if it does not promote its own ability to operate before the rush to promote online, will lead to online and offline sales conflict, resulting in the national product price system chaos, seriously undermining the brand image. A long way to go for corporate change: The business model change over the past 20 years is by no means a one-day effort that will take years of hard work: changes in business philosophy, use of objective data, control over retail terminals, transformation of the supply chain, etc. . Investment Suggestions We think the capital market has made a relatively adequate response to the downturn in the consumption of textile and clothing and also the importance and arduousness of the change. We think that the textile and clothing consumption is expected to rebound next year. On the one hand, the low base of reaction performance will rebound, On the other hand, we also expect the result of the change. After more than a year of adjustment, the stock is expected to continue to fall next year. The order growth in the first half of next year is expected to stabilize. In the second half of the year, the spring-summer bound goods will have a greater chance of growth. We expect that the growth of performance may come from the decrease of impairment provision next year and the slow recovery of performance due to the adjustment of operation from 15 years onwards. It is estimated that net profit in FY13-15 will be 449 million yuan, 514 million yuan and 588 million yuan respectively, down 18.2% YoY and 14.3% and 14.5% respectively. Maintain overweight rating.

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